A new quarterly report from CoinMarketCap suggests that Bitcoin may be on the cusp of a supercycle, and DeFi is being outcompeted by meme coins.
The bull market cycle of Bitcoin has been progressing toward its development, running 100 days ahead compared to the normal bulletin rate, said CMC.
Bitcoin (BTC) tickers down to $60,109.12 and is likely on the precipice of leaving the traditional four-year cycle for a supercycle, as outlined by CMC in its third-quarter market report launched on Oct. 3.
OX Markets and other data points indicate that Bitcoin is likely entering a supercycle based on institutional variables, BTC ETF, and fluctuating market characteristics.
What is the Bitcoin four-year cycle?
The four-year cycle in Bitcoin provides information on its market conditions and cyclic behavior. It is heavily associated with Bitcoin mining halving events, which reduce BTC block rewards by about 50% every four years or when 210,000 new Bitcoin blocks are created.
Bitcoin halvings generally cause large BTC fluctuations, and bull market trends historically reach their maximum 518 to 546 days following such halving events.
However, according to CMC, the Bitcoin price action combined with the latest BTC Halving on April 20, 2024, suggests that the all-time high rate of BTC may occur significantly earlier than standard projections.
Estimating Bitcoin’s current bull market progress at 40.66%, CMC wrote:
“This time, Bitcoin is ahead by about 100 days: which suggests that its peak could be between mid-May and mid-June 2025. […] However, such initial acceleration prompts fortunes of slowing infrastructure growth, which signals the broader market maturation.”
Breaking the four-year cycle
CMC pointed to several examples indicating that BTC could be breaking its four-year cycle, including Bitcoin’s rising association with traditional assets like gold and technology stocks, as well as growing institutional interest from firms like MicroStrategy and Semler Scientific.
On October 2, Forbes shared an article titled “Why Bitcoin is becoming a part of traditional finance.” The BTC chart shows that cryptocurrency is becoming more integrated into the overall financial process.
Storage, lending, and privacy sectors lead market drop in Q3 2024
Within the report, CMC highlighted the five most active sectors in the industry, led by memecoins and Ethereum.
However, despite this upward movement at the end of the third quarter, 16 sectors recorded at least 10% losses in Q3, decreasing by up to 40%. CMC identified the storage, lending, and privacy segments as the hardest hit, with downturns of 39%, 37%, and 31%, respectively.
CMC commented that amid the bearish Q3 market, DeFi and infrastructure sectors have been weak compared to the apparent pivot to ‘alt and meme’ topics such as artificial intelligence, media, and memes.
The US, India, and Brazil are among the largest countries for crypto users
Other highlights in the report include:
- The United States remains at the forefront of crypto usage, with a current market share of 17%.
- According to Chainalysis’s crypto adoption index in September, India is now the second-largest market with a share of over 9%.
- Brazil ranks third, with an 8% share of cryptocurrency users.
The CMC report also pointed out that among all the coins available during the third quarter, Bitcoin held the largest market share across all continents, ranging from 45% in Africa to 52% in Oceania.
Ether (ETH) decreased to $2,326.73, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization at the time of writing, and occupied third place in most regions, with a 13% average market share.
Solana (SOL) pulled back to $135.18, the fifth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, and ranked second on CMC’s global most traded coins list, with an average trading share of 14%.
Toncoin (TON) dropped by $5.26. The Open Network, a Telegram-associated blockchain project, was among the top 10 most discussed cryptocurrencies in Q3 of this year and third in Africa, with 15% of website traffic, according to CMC.