Market analysts are now suggesting that Bitcoin’s trading price is closely linked to the rise or fall of former president Donald Trump’s chances of victory.
The number one digital currency by market capitalization, Bitcoin, has climbed to its highest level in over 70 days, rising as if in response to the improving odds of former U.S. President Donald Trump.
Bitcoin (BTC) price indicators hit a new high above $68,200 for the first time since July 27, reflecting an almost 10% spike over the past week, according to data from Cointelegraph.
This occurred two days after Trump’s margin against Kamala Harris reached a record high on the leading decentralized prediction market.
As of Oct. 16 at 11:41 am UTC, Trump’s odds of winning the presidential election stood at 60.2%, while Harris’ odds dropped to 39.8%, as shown by Polymarket data.
While Trump is generally viewed as more favorable toward the crypto space, some investors worry that if Harris were to lead the executive branch, the adoption of blockchain technology could face additional restrictions.
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Peter Schiff Calls Bitcoin the “Trump Pump”
Although many factors influence Bitcoin’s price, well-known economist Peter Schiff labeled the current rally as a “meaningless Trump-inspired rally.”
In an Oct. 16 X post, Schiff wrote:
“Amid what everyone has decided to regard as yet another Trump-inspired crypto ‘pump and dump’, they have entirely overlooked #Gold rising to new record highs above $2,680. But while Bitcoin may be up more, it has been stuck in a range for seven months now, as gold breaks record after record.”
Indeed, bets on Trump’s odds tumbled on Polymarket throughout September but shifted in his favor on October 4. By the week ending October 12, Trump held a lead of more than 10%, according to Cointelegraph.
Bitcoin’s price found a floor at $60,300 on Oct. 10, shortly after Trump’s lead solidified. Since then, Bitcoin has surged more than 13% from its monthly low.
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Is Bitcoin Sentiment Correlated with Trump’s Election Odds?
Some industry analysts, like Thomas Fahrer, CEO of crypto review platform Apollo, also link Trump’s chances of winning to Bitcoin’s price.
In an Oct. 16 X post, Fahrer suggested:
“If the probability of Trump’s win increases by 1%, it will lead to the Bitcoin price increase of $1,000.”
Interestingly, Trump’s increasing election odds coincide with an upswing in crypto investor sentiment.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index transitioned from “fear” to “neutral” on October 12, the same day Trump’s Polymarket lead reached 10 points. Since then, the index has crossed 73, indicating a state of “greed” among investors.
This index is a multifactor measure of crypto market sentiment.