Selling pressure for Bitcoin may increase further in the run-up to the September 18 U.S. interest rate cut. The question is, will Bitcoin drop under $50,000 this weekend?
The BTC/USD pair is likely to fall below the $50,000 psychological level as early as this weekend, especially if September, a historically bearish month, exerts downward pressure.
The current Bitcoin (BTC) price of $54,364, as displayed by tickers, could be vulnerable to further selling pressure this weekend. This is particularly true if whales—entities with large amounts of Bitcoin—decide to book their gains. Recently, a whale transferred 100 BTC from one wallet to another, securing over $206,000 in profit after buying more than $5.3 million worth of Bitcoin.
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Following this trend, a total of 402,000 BTC worth over $21 billion was bought by addresses likely looking to sell at breakeven. According to a Sept. 7 X post by on-chain intelligence firm Lookonchain:
“836,000 addresses purchased ~402,800 $BTC ($21 billion) at a price between $51,113 and $54,303. These addresses are likely to sell near breakeven.”
As shown in the table below, whales significantly influence price fluctuations due to their large pool of market-making capital. Traders often use whale-selling signals to gauge short-term trends in cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin Could Correct Below $50,000 — Arthur Hayes
Bitcoin is likely to retest the $45,000 to $50,000 region—a psychologically important level—as soon as this weekend, according to Arthur Hayes, former CEO of cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX. Hayes wrote in a Sept. 6 X post:
“BTC is heavy; I am looking for Sub $50k this weekend. I took a cheeky short. Biblical, a degen, please pray for my soul.”
On the other hand, Bitcoin recently wiped out its critical $55,000 support floor, declining by 1.4% to trade at $54,340 by 9:26 am UTC on September 7. The leading cryptocurrency is trading almost 8% lower on the weekly chart.
Furthermore, Bitfinex market analysts predicted that the price might retest below $50,000 before the actual bull phase. The analysts told Cointelegraph:
“This is not just a random number out of the blue but because the cycle peak in terms of percentage return declines by about 60% – 70% each cycle and the average bull market correction.”
Adding to the bearish sentiment, Galaxy Digital deposited $78.5 million worth of BTC to Coinbase Prime on Sept. 7, said Lookonchain.
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Bitcoin to See More Downward Pressure Leading Up to Interest Rate Cut
The anticipation of at least a one-percent cut in interest rates in the United States, the world’s largest economy, is generally positive for risk-on assets like Bitcoin. However, Bitcoin’s price may face more bearish pressure up until the September 18 interest rate decision, according to Alvin Kan, the Chief Operating Officer of Bitget Wallet. Kan told ForksDaily:
“We anticipate that BTC and equities will come under selling pressure in the lead-up to the Fed’s official rate cut call. Long-term improvements in risk assets may be observed once the Fed initiates a rate cut after the September FOMC meeting.”
The activity of whales and institutional buying demand could also directly pressure short-term Bitcoin price trends. Kan added:
“Considering the current levels of fluctuation, it is possible that Bitcoin will face illiquidity, leading to sudden short-term lows… At the moment, the risk of Bitcoin dropping under $50,000 is estimated to be around 40%.”
Based on investor polls, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to reduce its interest rate at its meeting this month, particularly on September 18. According to the latest data from the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 70% probability that the rate cut will be 25 basis points and a 30% chance that it will be 50 basis points.