Even on the weekly chart, Bitcoin could not manage to close above the $60K psychological level; however, the LTHs are willing to go long on Bitcoin in 2024.
Bitcoin’s price ended the week below $50,000 – its 200-days EMA for the second consecutive week; nonetheless, in the last 24 hours, it has reclaimed $60,000. A number of charts show that long-term holders are completely immune to the current price levels. Even if a bullish breakout is not possible before August, is it feasible to get one after it?
Bitcoin long-term holder realized cap hits $3 billion
The 60,817 $ price of the Bitcoin BTC tickers down below the 200-day EMA and that has only happened three times this year in 2024. Referring to the chart below one can mention that the first bearish close under the 200-day EMA occurred on July 4.
In less than 10 days, the BTC/USD pair emerged above the EMA. This time round, it was below the indicator for only less than 24 hours before price surged taking it above the indicator indicating that bullish pressure is gradually regaining ground this week.
Holding period of bitcoins can be categorized as short-term holder (STHs) and long-term holder(LTHs) of bitcoins. The two also have different trading strategies and have different plans for the time to come.
STHs are people who deal with many transactions in a relatively short time frame and seek a quick profit. Most of these are retail or low or medium-network-value-profile investors or institutions.
On the other hand, LTHs are made up of traders holding positions where they aim at making a buy and sell in at least six months. Some of these are affiliated to individuals or very large companies especially with the emergence of the Bitcoin ETFs.
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The most recent data indicate that the LTH realized market capitalization change turned to have a positive net figure of $3 billion as was noted in December 2023.
The Bitcoin daily realized cap is calculated as the total summarized amount of all the total realized profits less the total amount of realized losses. In other words, the combined value streams into the Bitcoin onchain, less the capital that went out through losses.
Amr Taha, a crypto analyst, highlighted the above change in realized market cap, stating:Amr Taha, a crypto analyst, highlighted the above change in realized market cap, stating:
This suggests that more and more LTH continue to be holding While STH is being selling at a worse price.
BTC miner’s selling pressure flatlines
The net flow of bitcoins to miners has been seen to be declining in the second quarter of 2024 through selling of BTC through exchanges. But the selling pressure has eased in the last couple of weeks because miners’ reserves are starting to display an uptrend towards accumulation.
Of course, it is clear that the selling pressure of the miner has decreased in August and before one can turn up again, BTC could tread on the said range.
Stablecoin supply ratio leans bullish
Probably the most powerful fundamentally driven bullish narrative behind Bitcoin has been the global liquidity – or the global M2 money supply – which we have mentioned multiple times over the year is now finally starting to rise.
Comparable to global liquidity, there is a stablecoin supply ratio, or SSR, which shows how much liquidity is available as stablecoins that can be used to acquire Bitcoin.
SSR is defined as the ratio of the total crypto market cap to the total market cap of the stablecoins. A declining ratio suggests that more stablecoin is being minted even as the market capitalization struggles to catch up which will equal more capital available to purchase assets.
The current SSR ratio is currently at the levels of early February 2024, which means a lot of liquidity could be all over the trading floor leading to another round of rally soon.
The total stablecoin market capitalization has been elevated to a new ATH, $165 billion, according to Julio Moreno, the head of research at CryptoQuant. He said further, “This means increased depth in the crypto markets.”
BTC price nears “ChoCH” level above $62,000
Following a poor end of the week performance, Bitcoin has been able to turn the trend in the right direction with a 4. Some trends and oscillations: a 50% return over the past two days. BTC has been in an attempt to climb above a descending broadening channel.
But there is a massive wall of resistance for Bitcoin located right above the described pattern, at $61,700. The 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) are also close to that price point making it possible for Bitcoin to keep on ignoring a bullish breakout.
The confirmation of a bullish reversal will be confirmed if BTC is to close above the two EMAs and this crucial price level of $62,737 having had a successful breakout beyond the resistance level that is offered by $61,700. This can lead to what we call market signal namely The ChoCH or The Change of Character in September.